This Is What Peak Oil Looks Like

As oil production and exports are disrupted in Libya, the media often suggests Saudi Arabia will increase exports to compensate for the oil lost to the world market. Looking at the actual export figures from Saudi Arabia since 2002 make this look extremely unlikely; far more likely, we are about to see record oil prices, which will once again crash the economy similarly to the 2008 crash, and real shortages of oil and refined products like gasoline.

U.S. crude oil for May delivery is currently selling for $101.29 a barrel. While this price is already high enough to crash the economy, it is dirt cheap when you consider the likelihood of severe shortages in the near future.

Take a look at the recent historical export figures from Saudi Arabia, noting how much they exported at what oil price. In 2005 they exported the most oil ever at 9.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) when oil was selling for $57 per barrel. As prices rose, they exported less each year than in 2005. If they could produce more, why wouldn't they when prices are so high? Much more likely, they are in depletion and decline:

Saudi Net Oil Exports Versus Annual US Oil Prices
2002-2010 (EIA, Total Liquids)

Rising Net Oil Exports (relative to 2002) In Response to Rising Oil Prices:

2002: 7.1 mbpd & $26
2003: 8.3 mbpd & $31
2004: 8.6 mbpd & $42
2005: 9.1 mbpd & $57

Declining Net Oil Exports (relative to 2005) In Response to Rising Oil Prices:

2006: 8.4 mbpd & $66
2007: 8.0 mbpd & $72
2008: 8.4 mbpd & $100
2009: 7.3 mbpd & $62
2010: 7.4 mbpd & $79 (estimated)

Bloomberg reports:

Saudi Arabia’s exports fell to 6.05 million barrels a day in December from 6.36 million in November even as Saudi production rose to a two-year high of 8.37 million barrels a day, JODI said.

Note the difference between recent production (8.37 mbpd) and exports (6.05 mbpd). The difference is mostly consumption by Saudi citizens. They probably cannot increase production, and any attempt to reduce consumption by their citizens would likely stir unrest:

According to Yahoo:

Activists have set up Facebook pages calling for protests on March 11 and 20, with more than 17,000 supporters combined, but police managed to stifle two attempts to hold protests in the Red Sea city of Jeddah last month, highlighting the difficulties of such mobilization in the conservative kingdom.